CLIMATE CHANGE: Tipping Points

I originally wrote this on the CEF blog in September...


An article I read this morning on the excellent Nature.com climate change blog sums up nicely a key human tendency. In reference to the potential Copenhagen 2009 deal on emissions, an analyst summarises that humans will have “a fair chance to hold the 2°C line, yet the race between climate dynamics and climate policy will be a close one”.

It occurs to me that this encapsulates our common failing - the willingness to leave emergencies to the last minute (perhaps I am revealing too much of myself in that statement!) - that for ever and a day humans have been dealing with issues by sticking their finger in the dam until panic consumes the irrational and the crisis can't be ignored any longer. Just look at the financial markets this last 10 days - the problems causing this drama didn't just suddenly appear, they have been in the system for years but were easy to ignore.

Since the industrial revolution the stakes have risen higher and higher exponentially - not just to do with carbon emissions, but equally regarding food supply, water quality, energy supply, biodiversity, human rights, medicine... you name it, we are mad for riding the line. I'm sure this is partly due to being so impressed by our own innovation that we are reluctant to curb our instinct for exploitation.

Perhaps one of the challenges of dealing with climate change is that solving the problems includes a humbling acceptance of our recklessness and naivety which many of us are slow to concede. Can I admit that my dependence on all these modern conveniences (cheap and abundant energy, disposability etc.) is immature and irresponsible?
There are some difficult issues to deal with in that question.


If you would like to read the full Nature.com climate change blog post on tipping points, you can find it here.